A dashboard for election day

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Polls show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a steady lead against President Donald Trump. But the presidential race is not the only one on the ballot in 2020.

Will Biden’s candidacy produce a major Democratic wave from the top to the bottom of the poll? Or will Trump emerge from an upheaval – or at least keep the race close enough to minimize the impact of Biden’s ponytails? In this article, we will establish a guide to judge the extent of the partisan wave produced by the 2020 elections.

For the sixth consecutive campaign cycle, the Tampa Bay Times offers a list of factors to measure the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave nationwide – in the presidential race, in U.S. Senate and House races, in state-level contests, and in voting measures. (We have generally used the races for governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state in these analyzes, but there are relatively few of these races taking place this year, and the vast majority of them are not competitive. between the parties, compromising their usefulness for this purpose.)

After addressing eight key issues, we’ve established a baseline for what is ‘expected’ – based on current analysis by independent electoral handicappers, including the Political Report Cook and American News and World Report – and established a sliding scale that gives increasing credit to the expanding party for going beyond conventional wisdom once the ballots have been counted.

The higher the Democrats score on our rating scales, the stronger the Democrat Wave. After election day, we will notify you of the results statement.

1. How many of these 15 Battlefield States or Congressional Districts does Joe Biden earn?

The battlefield states are, in alphabetical order: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine 2nd district, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska 2nd District, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin. By comparison, Hillary Clinton won just three of the States in 2016.

Climb:

0-3: Very weak night for Democrats

4-5: Low night for Democrats

6-8: good night to the democrats

9-11: very good night for the democrats

12-14: very good night to the democrats

15: exceptional night for the democrats

2. How many of the following 13 countries on the battlefield switch from supporting Trump in 2016 to supporting Biden in 2020?

Every county on this list backed Trump by a single-digit margin in 2020: Maricopa County, Arizona; Duval, Monroe, Pinellas, St. Lucie and Seminole Counties, Florida; Kent and Saginaw Counties, Michigan; Robeson County, North Carolina; Erie and Northampton Counties, Pennsylvania; and the counties of Kenosha and Winnebago, Wis.

Climb:

0-2: Low night for Democrats

3-5: good night to the democrats

6-9: very good night to the democrats

9-13: very good night to the democrats

3. How many of those 14 US Senate races do Democrats win?

The seats of the Senate are in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia (regular elections), Georgia (special elections), Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas. All except the seats in Alabama and Michigan are currently held by a Republican.

Climb:

0-3: low night for the democrats

4-5: good night to the democrats

6-7: very good night to the democrats

8-10: very good night to the democrats

11+: exceptional night for the democrats

4. How many net US House seats do Democrats win or lose?

Currently, Democrats control 232 seats, Republicans control 197 seats, one seat is held by a libertarian, and five seats are vacant.

Climb:

Lose seats on the net: very low night for democrats

Win 0-4 seats on the net: low night for the democrats

Win 5 to 10 seats on the net: good night to the democrats

Win 11-15 seats on the net: very good night to the democrats

Win more than 16 places on the net: very good night to the democrats

5. What is the magnitude of the net partisan change in the control of state legislative chambers?

Currently, the GOP controls 58 legislative chambers while Democrats control 40 chambers.

Climb:

Democrats have a net loss in the chambers: very low night for democrats

Net gain of 0-1 bedrooms: low night for democrats

Net gain from 2 to 5 chambers: good night to the democrats

Net gain of 6-9 chambers: very good night to the democrats

Net gain of 10 or more rooms: very good night for the democrats

6. In how many states does the “liberal” camp prevail in the following electoral measures: education taxes (Arizona), tobacco tax for health care (Oregon), introduction of a progressive income tax (Illinois), creation of family and medical leave (Colorado), increase the minimum wage (Florida), reduce payday loans (Nebraska) and end the cash bond (California).

Climb:

0-2: Poor night for the liberals;

3-5: Decent night for the liberals;

6-7: A strong night for the Liberals.

7. In how many of the following five states do voters adopt voting measures that expand access to marijuana? Recreational marijuana is on the ballot in Arizona, Montana, and New Jersey, while medical marijuana is on the ballot in Mississippi and South Dakota.

Climb:

0-1: Poor night for the liberals;

2-3: Decent night for the liberals;

4-5: A strong night for the Liberals.

8. How many more Democratic-leaning candidates are winning over the Republican-leaning candidates in contested court races or maintenance elections in these states?

The races are in Illinois (a Democratic incumbent in a retention election); Michigan (one Democratic-backed incumbent and one Republican open seat are in place); North Carolina (two Democratic incumbents and one Republican open seat are in place); Ohio (two Republican-backed incumbents are up); and Texas (seven Republican incumbents are up).

Climb:

0-3: Poor night for Democrats;

4-5: Decent night for Democrats;

6-9: Strong night for the Democrats;

10+: Very strong night for the Democrats.

Louis Jacobson is senior correspondent at PolitiFact.com.

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